Abstract

The spatial planning in Indonesia has been based on the concept of sustainable development, however, the process is considered insufficient to deal with the current dynamic changes and future uncertainty due to global economic pressure. In order to cope with such complex challenges there is an urgent need to prepare resilient spatial plans in responding to major continuous change. The framework of social-ecological systems was used to identify the dynamic interactions between the ecological and social components of the problem of land-use conversion in the Northern Bandung Area. Using a system dynamics model, this research found that the root of such complex problem is the continuous transfer of land ownership. The study ran simulations by applying economic incentives (EIs) in an effort to control land ownership transfer. The simulations show that implementing high effort EIs can decrease the rate of conversion into built-up areas and the degradation of carrying capacity.

Keywords economic incentive, land use, Northern Bandung area, NBA, spatial plan, social-ecological system, SES, system dynamics, resilience

According to the Assessment Report 4 of Working Group II of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), there are five approaches in Climate Change Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (CCIAV) assessment. Notably, there has been shifting from research-driven approaches to assessments integrated toward policy-making, where decision-makers and stakeholder either participate in or drive the assessment (UNDP, 2005). Unlike the other four approaches which are more research oriented, the risk assessment approach has started to be applied in mainstreaming adaptation option into policy-making globally. Since 2008, the Government of Indonesia has explored the use of risk assessment approach for climate change adaptation planning. Several case studies have been done including the preparation of a national document namely Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap, Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Assessment in the Province of South Sumatra, the Province of Nusa Tenggara Barat, Greater Malang, and the City of Tarakan. South Sumatra Province is one of the areas in Indonesia which tipped to be prone to the impact of climate change. In the face of climate change impact such as increased temperature, precipitation rate, and sea level, South Sumatra is very vulnerable due to its low-land areas that it may threat coastal, water, agriculture, and health sectors of the province. In terms of temperature, the analysis suggested that there was an increased trend for the last 25 years around 0.31 Celcius in Palembang City and 0.67 Celcius for the whole South Sumatra. In terms of precipitation rate in South Sumatra, the analysis showed that the climate hazard until 2030 will be dominated by climate uncertainty due to the inter-annual variability which could cause extreme precipitation. Based on projection, in the period of 2020 2030, the risk of extreme precipitation will actually increase compared to the period 1991 2000. Similarly, estimation of future sea level rise based on altimeter satellite, model, and tide gauge will be around 0.5 0.7 cm annually. As a result, the projection of sea level rise in 2030 will be 13.5+6.15 cm above the sea level in 2000.The science basis data above then is to be used for flood hazards assessment, which then overlaid with vulnerability map to produce risk map. Based on the risk map, several adaptation options to Flood are identified as follows: Canalization, polder, retention pond, and infiltration measurement for Lowland areas; Detention basin and dam construction for Midland areas; Reforestation for Highland areas. The identified adaptation option above then is mainstreamed into development plans of South Sumatra Province.

The water sector is one of the most important sectors to be influenced by climate change impacts, in the form of water shortage. Currently, for an example, the Java- Bali regions have already faced a deficit in its water balance. Based on climate projections, most regions in Indonesia will suffer from a gradual decrease of water supply due to temperature increase and rainfall changes that will affect the water balance. Combined with estimated population growth rates, increased water demand will cause severe water shortages to occur, especially in Java and Sumatra for the period of 2020-2030. This paper identifies several high risk regions throughout Indonesia based on the national level of climate risk study. It is found that areas which possess high risk on water shortage stretch in some parts of the Java-Bali region, especially in a few locations in the northern and southern of West Java, middle and southern of Central Java and East Java; as well as in the capital of the North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bengkulu and Lampung (Sumatra), Nusa Tenggara Barat and South Sulawesi. This paper concludes with some possible actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change to water shortage.

West Java is an Indonesian Province which has a high risk of climate change impacts particularly in terms of increased exposure from many natural disasters. A natural disaster occurs frequently in the West Java Province, making the region vulnerable due to the biggest population in Indonesia it belongs to. Children are the most vulnerable populationfacing climate change impact because their physiological condition is not fully developed yet. They have a low adaptation ability towards the predicted changes. Therefore, mainstreaming climate change adaptation for children into development planning is important. It is also critical in order to induce more effective adaptation program. This paper analyzes how far the current development plan in the West Java Province reckons child adaptation mainstreaming to climate change. Data collection methods used in this research are the secondary method through the related development plan and the primary method through an in-depth interview to the related government institutions. Based on the analysis results using a content analysis, the region has a potential entry point to mainstream the adaptation of climate change into the development plan, involving seven government institutions. The opportunity of entry point from the West Java development plan is found in Badan Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup Daerah/BPLHD (the Regional Environmental
Management Agency) work plan. However, among these institutions, it is only BPLHD and the Health Department which almost fulfill all of the institutional capacity components to mainstreaming the adaptation of climate change for children into the West Java development planning. Therefore, both institutions are potentially recommended acting for initiators to induce coordination between the seven government institutions to mainstream the adaptation of climate change for children into the West Java development planning.

Urban Green Space Development has become a challenging task for city governments especially in Indonesia, due to high prices of land around urban centers. On the other hand, there are inconsistencies between land use and land allocation within the city planning. In Surabaya City, quite a lot of gas stations were built on areas which are originally intended for green open spaces. Surabaya City Municipality is strongly committed to reconvert Gas Station Areas to green open spaces as determined in the plan. Innovative strategies have enabled the city government to reconvert 13 gas stations to public parks. This paper analyzes the implementation process of the Urban Green Space Reconversion Policy, describing the historical details of the issues, the taking over of land from gas station owners, and the park development and campaigning. Discussion also includes the most influential factors in this success story.

West Java is an Indonesian Province which has a high risk of climate change impacts particularly in terms of increased exposure from many natural disasters. A natural disaster occurs frequently in the West Java Province, making the region vulnerable due to the biggest population in Indonesia it belongs to. Children are the most vulnerable population facing climate change impact because their physiological condition is not fully developed yet. They have a low adaptation ability towards the predicted changes. Therefore, mainstreaming climate change adaptation for children into development planning is important. It is also critical in order to induce more effective adaptation program. This paper analyzes how far the current development plan in the West Java Province reckons child adaptation mainstreaming to climate change. Data collection methods used in this research are the secondary method through the related development plan and the primary method through an in-depth interview to the related government institutions. Based on the analysis results using a content analysis, the region has a potential entry point to mainstream the adaptation of climate change into the development plan, involving seven government institutions. The opportunity of entry point from the West Java development plan is found in Badan Pengelolaan Lingkungan Hidup Daerah/BPLHD (the Regional Environmental Management Agency) work plan. However, among these institutions, it is only BPLHD and the Health Department which almost fulfill all of the institutional capacity components to mainstreaming the adaptation of climate change for children into the West Java development planning. Therefore, both institutions are potentially recommended acting for initiators to induce coordination between the seven government institutions to mainstream the adaptation of climate change for children into the West Java development planning.