Calculation of environmental carrying capacity can be done by various approaches. The selection of an appropriate approach determines the success of determining and applying environmental carrying capacity. This study aimed to compare the ecological footprint approach and the ecosystem services approach for calculating environmental carrying capacity. It attempts to describe two relatively new models that require further explanation if they are used to calculate environmental carrying capacity. In their application, attention needs to be paid to their respective advantages and weaknesses. Conceptually, the ecological footprint model is more complete than the ecosystem services model, because it describes the supply and demand of resources, including supportive and assimilative capacity of the environment, and measurable output through a resource consumption threshold. However, this model also has weaknesses, such as not considering technological change and resources beneath the earth’s surface, as well as the requirement to provide trade data between regions for calculating at provincial and district level. The ecosystem services model also has advantages, such as being in line with strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of ecosystem services, using spatial analysis based on ecoregions, and a draft regulation on calculation guidelines formulated by the government. Meanwhile, weaknesses are that it only describes the supply of resources, that the assessment of the different types of ecosystem services by experts tends to be subjective, and that the output of the calculation lacks a resource consumption threshold.

Abstract

Spatial planning is expected to facilitate climate change adaptation by directing future spatial and infrastructure developments away from zones that are exposed to climate-related hazards. This study attempts to confirm this understanding by mapping the effects of the various spatial plans on the northern coast of Java, Indonesia. First, the study maps the extent of coastal hazards for the baseline year of 2010 using a GIS-based inundation model. An overlay in GIS demonstrates the influence of spatial plans for the projection year of 2030. This allows for calculating the economic losses of the planned developments. The case study shows that the current provincial spatial plans direct land use conversions along the northern coast of Java to continue to occur in the future. This could significantly decrease the regional capacity in dealing with the exposure to coastal inundation. The analysis also demonstrates that a total area of 55,220 ha of land prone to inundation, consisting of protected area (1488 ha), fishponds (32,916 ha) and agricultural land (20,814 ha), is planned to be converted into industry (13,399 ha) and settlements (41,821 ha). Thus, these areas will be also prone to inundation in 2030. This change would potentially lead to an economic loss of 246.6 billion USD. The spatial plans issued by the national and provincial governments for regulating the future land use on the northern coast of Java have not integrated measures against hazards related to global sea level rise. Meanwhile, many existing developments have already been affected by coastal inundation. Rather than reducing the exposure towards coastal flood hazards, the case study shows that spatial plans could even increase the risk of climate-related hazards and cause higher economic losses. These findings provide a different perspective on the role of spatial planning for climate change adaptation than what is stated in the literature.

Abstract

The spatial planning in Indonesia has been based on the concept of sustainable development, however, the process is considered insufficient to deal with the current dynamic changes and future uncertainty due to global economic pressure. In order to cope with such complex challenges there is an urgent need to prepare resilient spatial plans in responding to major continuous change. The framework of social-ecological systems was used to identify the dynamic interactions between the ecological and social components of the problem of land-use conversion in the Northern Bandung Area. Using a system dynamics model, this research found that the root of such complex problem is the continuous transfer of land ownership. The study ran simulations by applying economic incentives (EIs) in an effort to control land ownership transfer. The simulations show that implementing high effort EIs can decrease the rate of conversion into built-up areas and the degradation of carrying capacity.

Keywords economic incentive, land use, Northern Bandung area, NBA, spatial plan, social-ecological system, SES, system dynamics, resilience

Spatial planning is expected to facilitate climate change adaptation by directing future spatial and infrastructure developments away from zones that are exposed to climate-related hazards. This study attempts to confirm this understanding by mapping the effects of the various spatial plans on the northern coast of Java, Indonesia. First, the study maps the extent of coastal hazards for the baseline year of 2010 using a GIS-based inundation model. An overlay in GIS demonstrates the influence of spatial plans for the projection year of 2030. This allows for calculating the economic losses of the planned developments. The case study shows that the current provincial spatial plans direct land use conversions along the northern coast of Java to continue to occur in the future. This could significantly decrease the regional capacity in dealing with the exposure to coastal inundation. The analysis also demonstrates that a total area of 55,220 ha of land prone to inundation, consisting of protected area (1488 ha), fishponds (32,916 ha) and agricultural land (20,814 ha), is planned to be converted into industry (13,399 ha) and settlements (41,821 ha). Thus, these areas will be also prone to inundation in 2030. This change would potentially lead to an economic loss of 246.6 billion USD. The spatial plans issued by the national and provincial governments for regulating the future land use on the northern coast of Java have not integrated measures against hazards related to global sea level rise. Meanwhile, many existing developments have already been affected by coastal inundation. Rather than reducing the exposure towards coastal flood hazards, the case study shows that spatial plans could even increase the risk of climate-related hazards and cause higher economic losses. These findings provide a different perspective on the role of spatial planning for climate change adaptation than what is stated in the literature.

Based on the crunch model, the root causes of vulnerability to disasters include political, natural, economic, and social aspects. To target these root causes, there needs to be a focus on developing education as it plays an important role in increasing the capacity of an individual and a community. The Indonesian has prioritized the development of education and even allocated about 20 percent of its spending. In addition, the government has a social protection program that also affects the education, particularly for children namely Indonesia Smart Program (“Program Indonesia Pintar”). For this paper, Cianjur Regency was chosen as a case study for several reasons. First, Cianjur is the regency most vulnerable to disasters in West Java, particularly of floods and landslides. Second, Cianjur is one of the regencies in West Java with many social problems. The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of the Indonesia Smart Program in increasing the capacity of children to strengthen disaster resilience in Cianjur Regency. The PIP faces many challenges particularly in Cianjur Regency such as the accessibility of the beneficiaries to get the financial aid and the monitoring aspect of utilization of the money. The Indonesia Smart Program has an indirect effect in increasing the capacity of children in general. However, the effect of increasing the capacity of children in disaster risk reduction is relatively limited and indirect.

Based on the crunch model, the root causes of vulnerability to disasters include political, natural, economic, and social aspects. To target these root causes, there needs to be a focus on developing education as it plays an important role in increasing the capacity of an individual and a community. The Indonesian has prioritized the development of education and even allocated about 20 percent of its spending. In addition, the government has a social protection program that also affects the education, particularly for children namely Indonesia Smart Program (“Program Indonesia Pintar”). For this paper, Cianjur Regency was chosen as acase study for several reasons. First, Cianjur is the regency most vulnerable to disasters in WestJava, particularly of floods and landslides. Second, Cianjur is one of the regencies in West Java with many social problems. The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of the Indonesia Smart Program in increasing the capacity of children to strengthen disaster resilience in Cianjur Regency. The PIP faces many challenges particularly in Cianjur Regency such as theaccessibility of the beneficiaries to get the financial aid and the monitoring aspect of utilization of the money. The Indonesia Smart Program has an indirect effect in increasing the capacity of children in general. However, the effect of increasing the capacity of children in disaster riskreduction is relatively limited and indirect.